1
WHEN IT MATTERS
Tyler Gaffalione / Brendan P Walsh
Win probability3.3%
- Morning line
- 8/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
Post Parade Value Pick
#11 · Luis Saez / Joe Sharp
PRACTICAL PATSY
Projected Odds
8/1
Apex Logic · The Closer's Advantage
His ceiling Beyer of 70 (Mdn 100k at KD) tops what most of this field has shown lately, and the honest flow lets the rider sit wherever the trip opens up. The angle the public is missing: the Beyer ticked 50 → 70 last out — quietly improving, not regressing. Luis Saez stays for Joe Sharp, the kind of quiet barn pattern that doesn't move the toteboard but moves the model. The board has PRACTICAL PATSY at 8/1; our turf sim at 1m T makes the fair price closer to 9.9-1, and that gap is the bet.
Stamina
60
Speed Fig
0
Overlay
-19%
The Field
16 runners · click a row to expand PPs
Awaiting odds…
2
STORMED OFF
John R Velazquez / Mark E Casse
Win probability4.9%
- Morning line
- 6/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
3
MADISON MOON
Axel Concepcion / Joe Sharp
Win probability1.4%
- Morning line
- 20/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
4
FREE VERSE
Irad Ortiz Jr / Brad H Cox
Win probability3.6%
- Morning line
- 4/1
- Running style
- Closer
5
CAMPHOR
Jose L Ortiz / Cherie Devaux
Win probability3.1%
- Morning line
- 8/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
6
NEVER GONNA STOP
Cristian A Torres / Norm W Casse
Top pick
Win probability23.3%
- Morning line
- 5/1
- Running style
- Pace
7
ARCANGELA
Danny Sheehy / John Ennis
Win probability2.7%
- Morning line
- 20/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
8
SWEET BUTTERCUP
Ben Curtis / Michael W Mccarthy
Win probability1.4%
- Morning line
- 15/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
9
GLOBAL UNREST
Flavien Prat / Chad C Brown
Win probability3.6%
- Morning line
- 8/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
10
MISS JESSE
Emmanuel Esquivel / Kenneth G Mcpeek
Win probability1.3%
- Morning line
- 30/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
11
PRACTICAL PATSY
Luis Saez / Joe Sharp
3rd
Win probability9.2%
- Morning line
- 8/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
12
MELEYS
Brian J Hernandez Jr / Ian R Wilkes
Win probability6.4%
- Morning line
- 6/1
- Running style
- Closer
13
FOLLOW YOUR HEART
Luis Saez / George R Arnold II
2nd
Win probability23.3%
- Morning line
- 5/2
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
14
ZIPLINE
Jose L Ortiz / Mark E Casse
Win probability5.8%
- Morning line
- 9/2
- Running style
- Closer
15
SPEAK FOR YOURSELF
Yedsit Hazlewood / John C Servis
Win probability3.4%
- Morning line
- 20/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
16
GLASSING
Tyler Gaffalione / Saffie A Joseph Jr
Win probability3.3%
- Morning line
- 10/1
- Running style
- Mid-Pack
Pace Dynamics
Lone SpeedHonestHotMeltdown
Projected scenario
Lone Speed
Field Overview
- 01#6NEVER GONNA STOP23.3%
- 02#13FOLLOW YOUR HEART23.3%
- 03#11PRACTICAL PATSY9.2%
- 04#12MELEYS6.4%
- 05#14ZIPLINE5.8%
- 06#2STORMED OFF4.9%
Tactical Betting
$1 Exacta BOX · 4 horses$12.00
BOX · #6 NEVER GONNA STOP / #13 FOLLOW YOUR HEART / #11 PRACTICAL PATSY / #12 MELEYS
4 horses × 3 = 12 combinations
$1 Trifecta BOX · 6 horses$120.00
BOX · #6 NEVER GONNA STOP / #13 FOLLOW YOUR HEART / #11 PRACTICAL PATSY / #12 MELEYS / #14 ZIPLINE / #2 STORMED OFF
6 horses × 5 × 4 = 120 combinations
Virtual Race · R5 · Maiden Special Weight · 2yo Fillies
Predictions LockedSandbox simulator — uses the same model as the Projected Winner. Results here do not affect race predictions.
Dirt
Live Order
GateWin % · model weight
Run 10,000 sims to replace model weight with the actual finish-position distribution.